7th Annual Venny/PDVSA Workshop

Venezuela’s Oil Industry: A Deep Dive into Short-term Trends and
What it Will Take to Recover

New York, January 30, 2019

 

Event Venue

Guggenheim Partners
330 Madison Ave
New York, NY 10017

Registration

US$ 1,950 per person

Early-bird Registration
before December 31, 2018

US$ 1,750 per person

Limited seats available.  Maximum registration two per company.

For more information, please contact David Voght at +1 305 767 2177.

Now in its seventh year, IPD Latin America’s Venny/PDVSA workshop provides investors with a granular understanding of PDVSA’s current operational and financial situation, as well as the investment environment in which Venezuela’s oil and natural gas industry operates.

IPD Latin America’s senior consultants each have more than 25 years of experience in the Venezuelan oil industry. Workshop presenters drill down into oil industry operations to provide a clearer understanding of an otherwise opaque market.

Many thanks to Mark Walker and Guggenheim Securities (this year’s workshop host) and Richard Cooper of Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP for leading our discussion on default, restructuring, and the path forward.

 View Presenter Bios

Agenda (subject to change)

11:45 AM – Registration (Light lunch available)

12:00 PM – Welcoming Remarks and Political Overview

  • Impact of an unrecognized presidency
  • Political scenarios: Will 2019 be an inflection point?
  • The politics of oil: Who is in the driver’s seat? Who will drive recovery?

12:30 – 1:45 –  Industry Status and Short Term Trends: Setting the Stage

  • Oil output trends and 2019 forecast:  How far can production fall?
  • Can existing JVs offset output decline?
  • What role will Russia and China play?
  • Extra-heavy oil output: Economic and logistical challenges
  • Refining: Current capacity limitations, trends, crude and product imports
  • Oil exports: Logistical challenges, non-cash exports
  • Human resources and the impact of “brain drain”
  • Impact of sanctions on international JV partners and service companies
  • ICSID arbitration liabilities dashboard
  • PDVSA’s foreign assets: Attachment vulnerabilities

1:45 – 2:00 – Coffee Break

2:00 – 3:00 – Roundtable Discussion: Default, Restructuring, and the Path Forward

  • The reality of restructuring Venezuelan debt
  • Asset attachments: Creditor implementation
  • Options under a status quo scenario; solutions in the event of a regime change

3:00 – 4:30 – Venezuela’s Oil Sector Recovery Scenarios

  • Political, fiscal, and economic assumptions
  • Oil policy assumptions
  • Regulatory, contract, and pricing structures
  • Reserves assessment
  • Identifying incremental crude production and measuring profitability
  • The role of heavy crude: Upstream expansion, refurbishing upgraders; diluent import dynamics
  • Production scenarios: Output estimates and timing
  • Natural gas project and market development
  • Recovering refining capacity
  • Crude and petroleum product import scenarios
  • Post-restructuring OPEX and CAPEX requirements
  • PDVSA cash flow analysis

4:30 4:45 Final Remarks

All IPD Latin America financial client workshops are MNPI compliant.  Our insider trading policy can be downloaded here.